When writing the probable cause narrative on block 4 of the AF Form 178, which of the following must be avoided?

• A. Unverified rumors
• B. Conclusions based on evidence
• C. Personal opinions of LEOs
• D. Speculative observations

Answer: (C)

Objectivity and evidence-based writing are what block 4 needs. The probable cause narrative should read as a factual record, grounded in what was observed, measured, documented, or stated by reliable witnesses. Personal opinions of law enforcement officers introduce bias and aren’t verifiable, so they must be left out. The narrative should describe what happened and why the evidence supports the probable cause, using objective language and concrete details (times, locations, actions, physical evidence, statements) rather than beliefs or judgments about motives or character.

Unverified rumors or speculative observations don’t fit this standard because they can’t be substantiated in the official record. Conclusions should be drawn only from the available evidence and stated as such, not as the writer’s beliefs. That way the narrative remains reliable for investigators and commanders who rely on it.